Sunday, September 19, 2010
China's GDP
China's GDP has caught up to Japan's this year. It's GDP now stands at more than $5T compare to USA's $14T.
Various sources has indicated that China will catch up to USA in 20 years, around 2030.
But consider that China's GDP has doubled during the last 5 years, why would it take another 20 years to close the 2.6x gap?
I think that, giving current trajectory, China's GDP will catch up to USA's in about 6-7 years. This will partly be due to China's natural 10% annual growth, but the Fed will also play a big part, by printing $$ and tilting the exchange rate further.
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