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Sunday, September 19, 2010

China's GDP



China's GDP has caught up to Japan's this year.  It's GDP now stands at more than $5T compare to USA's  $14T.

Various sources has indicated that China will catch up to USA in 20 years, around 2030.

But consider that China's GDP has doubled during the last 5 years, why would it take another 20 years to close the 2.6x gap?

I think that, giving current trajectory,  China's GDP will catch up to USA's in about 6-7 years.   This will partly be due to China's natural 10% annual growth, but the Fed will also play a big part,  by printing $$ and tilting the exchange rate further.


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