Has the market bottomed? No, if you are talking about long term, then certainly not. Please take a look at my other blog, http://perpetualbear.blogspot.com/, which has a repost of my article from March 2001, “Demographic reasons for market bubbles”. From the graphs in that article, one can see that the market bottom may be around the year 2015, give or take a few years.
For the short term, I think the market will give a chance to see what the Obama spendings will do.
Right now, the conventional wisdom is “buy bonds, avoid financials and basic materials”. But the conventional wisdom is usually wrong on the market. The financials will benefit from the charity of the tax payers. Even if the big banks are nationalized, there will still be a substantial private banking sector in this country. As to basic materials, they will simply benefit from the Fed’s printing press.
The baby boomers are taking money out of stocks and put them into government bonds, at precisely the wrong time.
http://trendmester.blogspot.com
1 comment:
Thank you for your analysis. I've read you since your Perpetual Bear days. I am always amazed at how well you have read the markets. You have been very accurate in your articles.
What is your time frame for this rally you see in the short term?
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