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Monday, November 12, 2007

QQQQ Target Price, Again

QQQQ Target Price is currently 52.5. This is the option seller's "best wish" price for this Friday, when all the options expired. This is also called the "maximum pain" price from the view point of the option buyers.

The target price is the equilibrium point between the bulls (call buyers) and bears (put buyers). Right now, most of the calls have a strike price around 54 and most of the puts have strike prices around 50. If QQQQ goes to 52.5 by EOD Friday, most of the calls and puts will be out of money and expire worthless.

On the other hand, at today's closing price of 48.73, the option sellers owe an obligation of around $429 million to the put buyers.

Usually, the options sellers get their way -- the options usually expire at maximum pain to the buyers. But this week the market seems to have a mind of its own. Will the option sellers again get their way? We shall see.

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