dude, bye

Dubai.  Do buy?  Dude, bye!

The Dollar is going ...

The Peterson Institute for International Economics:  … if the post-recession, long-term US fiscal deficit skyrockets, to 10 percent of GDP instead of adjusting to 2 percent—because of uncontrolled spending on health care and Social Security—the current account deficit and foreign debt could explode. By 2030 the current account deficit would soar to more than $5 trillion annually, or more than 15 percent of US GDP, if policymakers fail to take decisive action to reduce the size of future budget deficits once the economy improves enough to do so. As a result, the net foreign debt of the United States would rise to $50 trillion, or more than 140 percent of GDP—far above any conceivably sustainable positions. The nation could be transferring about 7 percent of GDP annually to foreigners by 2030 to service its huge international debt. Projections by William R. Cline (see chapter 2 [pdf] in The Long-Term International Economic Position of the United States)

 

The New York Times: With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019. (From Payback Time - Wave of Debt Payments Facing U.S. Government - Series - NYTimes.com).

 

 

Nasdaq 100 falling below trend line

Check out this chart of QQQQ. 

Back in July 6th, the Q's fell below the trend line, but was able to recover by gapping above the trend line on July 15th.

The thing is, once fall below the trend line, the line becomes a resistance.  Can the Q's pull a July 15th style recovery?  Or will it be turned back by the trend line?  We shall find out tomorrow.

begin bearish bias

Short term bearish bias.  Also, bearish for mid/long term.  Market has topped out at current levels. Shopping season will have nothing to celebrate. Market should head lower around Dec/Jan time frame, if not sooner.

Another month, another round of crazy put buyers

October option activity continues to provide strong base to market.

Almost forgot about the final group of buyers

Put/call ratio is very high. Over-eager bears may become the final group of buyers next 2 weeks.

Market Topping Out?

Back in February, I said the market should come back to 10000 and then head downward. Well, 10000 is an approximate number. Maybe 9600 is close enough.